RECESSION CANARY

No economic indicators are available, so the canary cannot calculate a score or assess conditions.

Why unconventional indicators?

Traditional economic metrics like GDP, unemployment rate, and CPI are lagging indicators — by the time they confirm a recession, you've already been in one for months. The NBER typically doesn't declare a recession until 6-12 months after it began.

These 12 indicators are leading or coincident. They measure the physical economy (boxes shipped, trucks loaded, copper consumed) rather than statistical abstractions. They capture behavioral changes (restaurant bookings, lipstick sales) that surveys miss. And they're harder for governments to manipulate or revise.

No single indicator is perfect. The power is in the ensemble — when multiple independent signals align, the probability of a correct call rises dramatically.